Repeated blasts at military sites expose the risks facing Syria as it rebuilds its army and consolidates weapons after years of war.
A series of explosions at weapons and ammunition sites across Syria this month have exposed the difficulties facing the country’s military in storing and moving munitions, as the armed forces rebuild after more than a decade of war.
The latest blasts injured at least four people in the early hours of Monday morning at an arms depot in al-Eis, south of Aleppo.
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On Friday, a blast in Ayyash, west of Deir Az Zor, killed ۱۱ soldiers. Another on September ۹ killed ۱۴ defence ministry personnel in Sarmada, Idlib. Also in Idlib, five people were killed when a vehicle carrying ammunition exploded in the town of Binnish on September ۱ .
According to a tally by the Reuters news agency, at least ۱۶ similar explosions have hit arms storage facilities since the fall of long-time President Bashar al-Assad in December ۲۰۲۴ after an opposition offensive.
Some have been attributed to poor storage conditions. The Syrian Defence Ministry said it is investigating the causes behind the recurrent explosions to prevent future incidents.
Long-time neglect
Security analysts are divided on the root causes, with some pointing to a lack of professional infrastructure and others highlighting the potential for foreign interference – although there is as yet no hard evidence for that.
Omer Ozkizilcik, a nonresident senior fellow for the Syria Project in the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programmes, explained to Al Jazeera that the Syrian military is undergoing a period of huge change. It is reorganising from what it was under al-Assad, consolidating weapons from different sources and integrating various forces. All of that could be putting pressure on Syria’s storage infrastructure, which was already creaking after the long war and international isolation.
“The explosions could have happened due to neglect, Ozkizilcik said. “The Syrian army is receiving much more military aid than ever before. It gained control over the stockpiles of the former regime and the formerly US-backed [Syrian Democratic Forces]. The increase in quantity coupled with the need to protect weapons from potential Israeli airstrikes may have pushed the Syrian army to store weapons in inadequate places.”
Ozkizilcik emphasised that Syria’s military is still in a transitional phase. The former army was dissolved after the fall of the al-Assad regime and fighters from armed opposition groups were integrated into a new military structure. Damascus has also been working to integrate territory and forces previously controlled by the Kurdish-led SDF.
“The Syrian army has yet to become a professional army,” Ozkizilcik added. “These explosions are not the first that happen in Syria. Before the fall of al-Assad, similar things happened many times in Syria. [but] I don’t think these explosions will affect Syria’s military capabilities in any visible way. It’s merely a loss of some stockpiles that can be replenished.”
Weapons and ammunition, by their nature, need to be handled extremely carefully and stored properly. Storing large quantities of ageing ammunition for years in poor conditions, such as high temperatures or humidity, can accelerate their deterioration and lead to them becoming unstable.
“The current warehouse infrastructure suffers from severe ageing; most of it dates back decades and does not meet international safe storage standards,” said security expert Ismat al-Absi. “Storing ageing munitions in open or semi-closed environments without controlled cooling and humidity systems creates what we call a thermal runaway chain reaction.”
Possibility of sabotage
The repeated explosions have led to some fears of sabotage, particularly in light of repeated Israeli attacks against Syria since the fall of al-Assad, many of which have targeted the military, including the August strikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib.
Ozkizilcik noted that there was “no public information about possible sabotage” being behind the weapons depot explosions, and no evidence of any direct Israeli links. But the repeated explosions, coupled with Israel’s attacks in Syria and past intelligence operations against groups like Lebanon’s Hezbollah, mean it cannot be totally ruled out.
“Considering that the Israeli media recently wrote about the growing military capabilities of Syria, suspicions grow,” he said.
Al-Absi told Al Jazeera that the wide geographic scope of the explosions nevertheless meant that deliberate interference should be investigated.
“The main loopholes that [could have allowed sabotage operations] are the absence of smart surveillance, relying on traditional human guarding instead of remote sensors and thermal movement detection; weak securing of transport lines and administrative fragmentation,” al-Absi said. “The weakness of security discipline during the restructuring phase of the military institution has made some sites vulnerable to penetration or internal manipulation.”
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