Latvia’s president has warned that Europe is not keeping up with developments of drone and aerial warfare in Ukraine and that most countries in Nato could not repulse an attack by Russian missiles if the conflict expands.
The remarks came during a Guardian interview in Washington DC in which Edgars Rinkēvičs said that the technological developments in drone warfare in Ukraine are moving at “lightning speed” and that current efforts to prepare for an aerial war could be obsolete by the middle of next year.
“What we see is that air defence, drone defence, anti-ballistic defence has serious problems,” he said. “And let’s be frank. Ukraine has it. The whole of Europe and Nato has it.
“Because if Russia decides to use a couple of missiles in that territory, I think that would be a serious challenge today for many countries to cope with that,” he added.
Ukraine and European allies are now facing a delay in supplies of crucial Patriot and other air-defence missiles. The US has expended nearly two-thirds of its stocks of critical interceptors in the war in Iran, according to analysis of a Congressional Budget Office assessment, and it could take at least five years to replenish stocks.
The US has considered outsourcing Patriot production to Ukraine and Europe but so far an agreement has not been made.
“It’s up to the United States government, it’s up to the company,” Rinkēvičs said, noting that discussions were continuing and acknowledging the difficulties of some technical issues with licensing. “We have some capacities in Europe, but let’s face it: Patriots are still one of the best, if not the best, to tackle this.”
At next week’s United Nations general assembly in New York City, Donald Trump is expected to hold meetings with senior European leaders, and as Nato allies have stepped up their warnings about the risk of Russia escalating the war in Ukraine.
Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, warned in a speech on Thursday that Russia could launch drone or missile strikes against Nato countries supporting Ukraine in the coming months in an effort to test the alliance’s commitment to collective defence under article ۵ of its charter.
Tusk said that Russia would seek to “weaken Nato’s integrity” and show that “article ۵ is more theoretical than practical”, adding that Russia would seek to play off the incidents as accidents.
Asked about Tusk’s concerns about Russia attacking Ukrainian allies in Europe, Trump said: “I think they already have attacked Ukrainian allies. They’ve been attacking Ukrainian allies for approximately five years.”
He then pivoted to throw his support behind the Polish president, Karol Nawrocki, who is supported by the conservative Law and Justice party, saying: “You have a great president, he was a big Trump fan … he’s doing a fantastic job, and he’s got it under control.”
The Baltic nations, which are also on Russia’s eastern flank, have tempered their warnings, saying that there was no indication that Moscow sought to launch a conventional war to retake territory that it once held under the Soviet Union.
But Russia would increase mobilisation in the coming months after local elections, Rinkēvičs said, then use the winter to “push” in Ukraine, and also to “do whatever it takes to dissuade nations that are supportive of Ukraine to continue”.
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Acts of sabotage, cyber-attacks and drone and missile incidents all indicated Russia testing European resolve to support Ukraine, he said.
“I would rule out a conventional military incursion but we should be very vigilant when it comes to all kinds of other possibilities,” he said.
A Nato jet shot down a Russian drone over Lithuania on Tuesday. Poland scrambled fighter jets and closed Lublin and Rzeszów-Jasionka airports on Thursday due to a Russian strike on western Ukraine.
Rinkēvičs also expressed concern about whether European allies were on track to hit a goal of spending ۵% of GDP on defence that has become a White House benchmark for the Trump administration’s continued support for Nato.
He also said that discussions over Europe bearing a great burden for its own defence were growing “more constructive”, but added that when it comes to “real capabilities … you need time”.
“Our message is also to do that, we need time,” he said. “It cannot happen in a month, or in a year.”
