Islamist extremist violence in Africa’s Sahel region is set to reach historic highs after a series of sweeping offensives by groups linked to al-Qaida and Islamic State, according to new figures compiled by the conflict monitor Acled.
As the US marks the ۲۵th anniversary of the ۹/۱۱ attacks launched by al-Qaida against targets in Washington and New York, the statistics underline the continued expansion of the veteran organisation in parts of Africa – in stark contrast with its relative weakness elsewhere.
Compiled by Acled, which stands for Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, the statistics focus on the centre of Islamic militancy in three countries – Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – which together comprise a huge and hotly contested zone at the heart of the strategic Sahel region.
According to the respected non-profit organisation, incidents of violence with jihadist groups present in the three countries have soared from ۶۳ in ۲۰۱۶ to ۲,۸۴۵ in ۲۰۲۵. So far this year, ۲,۱۴۵ events have already been logged. If current trends continue in coming months, an annual total of well over ۳,۰۰۰ events appears likely.
Though total deaths from terrorism globally have fallen to their lowest level since ۲۰۰۸, those in the Sahel have risen sharply.
“Terrorism has become more geographically concentrated: the Sahel continued to record some of the world’s highest terrorism death tolls, with the UN recording more than ۹,۰۰۰ deaths from security incidents across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in ۲۰۲۵,” the ۲۰۲۶ report of the Global Peace Index noted earlier this year.
In April, a joint offensive in Mali launched by the al-Qaida-linked group Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-dominated rebel group Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) targeted strategic towns, government forces and their Russian auxiliaries with ambushes, car bombs, drones and raids, inflicting significant casualties.
Mali’s defence minister died in a suicide attack on his residence in the garrison town of Kati, ۹ miles north-west of the capital, Bamako, and the head of military intelligence was killed.
Other attacks hit Mali’s international airport, while rebels seized control of the strategic city of Kidal, a former stronghold of the FLA, after soldiers fled and a force of Russian mercenaries surrendered. The defeat reversed a key symbolic victory won by the junta in Mali three years ago.
Since then, JNIM has continued to expand areas under its control in Mali, killing more soldiers and Russian mercenaries in recent weeks, and broadening its operations in some neighbouring countries.
Much of the violence involves fighting with rival groups. The conflict has also included multiple killings by government armed forces and Russian mercenaries.
In Burkina Faso, JNIM has claimed more than ۱۳۰ attacks in ۲۰۲۶, striking closer to Ouagadougou, the capital. In Niger, the group claimed at least ۱۷ attacks but remained significantly less active than its rival Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, according to a recent United Nations report based on intelligence supplied by member states.
Experts said JNIM had distanced itself from al-Qaida’s historic objectives of striking the US and its allies.
“In the Sahel, Islamic State and al-Qaida now command big areas but these are very localised groups. Not a single attack in Europe or the US has been planned in the Sahel,” said Ulf Laessing, a senior analyst at the Konrad Adenauer foundation in Berlin.
The other main group in sub-Saharan Africa with links to al-Qaida is al-Shabaab, which has dominated much of Somalia’s rural areas for many years.
“In east Africa, al-Shabaab remains one of the continent’s deadliest groups, with Acled recording more than ۱۰,۰۰۰ reported deaths in al-Shabaab-related violence over the past ۱۸ months,” said Peter Bofin, Acled’s senior analyst for south-east Africa. “Despite some degradation of its extortion in Mogadishu, its revenue streams stretch across the country, and the region.”
Militant groups linked loosely to IS are active in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Chad and Nigeria, where they were targeted by US airstrikes last year.
The continuing expansion in sub-Saharan Africa has been welcomed in al-Qaida’s propaganda, but experts point out the continent barely featured in the group’s strategic planning until recent years. “Twenty-five years ago it was all about Afghanistan and then Iraq … Africa wasn’t really of interest then. Now its the main area of operations,” said Laessing.
Though sectarian and ethnic conflict, bitter competition over resources, poor governance, endemic instability and other factors make Africa a fertile ground for Islamic militant recruiters, territory in places like Mali and Somalia has major limitations as a base for campaigns elsewhere in the world or for long-range terrorist attacks.
At its peak in the years after the ۹/۱۱ attacks, al-Qaida affiliates posed a significant threat to authorities across much of the Middle East, with thousands convinced by the group’s call for a global uprising against the US, Israel and local regimes. Al-Qaida was also able to inspire and direct a series of lethal attacks in Europe that killed hundreds.
However, the recent UN report described al-Qaida senior leadership as “marginalised” and noted that the group’s capability and intent to conduct external operations remained “unclear”.
Analysts point out there has been no formal declaration of a successor to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the veteran Egyptian militant killed in Kabul by the US in ۲۰۲۲.
Instead, the de facto leader is believed to be ۶۶-year-old Saif al-Adel, who is thought to have been in Iran since ۲۰۰۲ and has yet to make any public statement. Other leaders are likely to be based in Afghanistan, where the group has been able to rebuild a limited infrastructure, western intelligence services believe.
The most potent al-Qaida affiliate outside Africa is the Yemen-based Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which the UN report described as “the vanguard of the global al-Qaida movement” and one of the few affiliates committed to continuing al-Qaida’s decades-old campaign against the US.
In May, AQAP’s media channels released a new video calling on Muslims in Europe and the US to carry out local attacks and to fight on “behalf of the [Islamic community] in any way possible”.
But though AQAP continues to maintain an estimated ۲,۰۰۰ fighters, largely entrenched in the mountains between Abyan and Shabwa, the group’s activity fell by approximately ۷۰%, from ۶۳ events in the first seven months of ۲۰۲۵ to ۱۹ during the same period in ۲۰۲۶, according to Acled.
Some analysts have contrasted the high numbers of militants currently mobilised by groups such as JNIM and al-Shabaab, which number in the tens of thousands, with the much more limited manpower available to al-Qaida before the ۹/۱۱ attacks. Others stress the very different intentions and capabilities of the group now and ۲۵ years ago.
