Sweden goes to the polls on Sunday in an extremely close election that could see the far right enter government for the first time if the country’s rightwing parties can form a majority.
Opinion polls show the centre-left opposition alliance ahead, with Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats the favourite to become prime minister again after four years in opposition, but her bloc’s lead has narrowed considerably in the final days of the campaign.
In ۲۰۲۲, the current prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the centre-right Moderates, broke a longstanding taboo to make a deal with the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), so that his minority coalition could form a government.
That agreement gave the SD outsized influence over government policy, especially on crime and immigration, and Kristersson has now gone further, promising ministerial posts for the SD if he is returned to power.
The election comes days after Germany’s nativist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) seized first place in key state elections, and as Marine Le Pen leads the polls for next year’s presidential vote in France.
Legal and civil rights experts have warned that such a result could further undermine Sweden’s long-held reputation as a global champion of human rights, which has significantly deteriorated under the current government.
“What we have seen in the past four years is huge changes when it comes to policies on crime and immigration,” said John Stauffer, legal director at Civil Rights Defenders.
“That is also the concern moving forward into the next mandate period: that this government will continue with a clear aim to further decrease the number of people coming to Sweden, the number of people who can get protection, and also that as many people as possible with migrant backgrounds leave Sweden – either by force or voluntarily.”
SD’s manifesto includes pledges to introduce “anti-Swedish sentiment in legislation on incitement against ethnic groups”, revoke permanent resident permits and further cut immigration.
One of its slogans is a promise to “make Sweden Sweden again”.
Despite recent changes – including the deportation of teenagers, lowering the age of criminal responsibility and sending ۱۴-year-olds to adult prisons – many voters and politicians continued to see Sweden as a “champion of human rights and a champion of the rules-based world order where human rights is an important part”, Stauffer said.
“But it is quite clear that the Sweden Democrats do not have that ambition. They don’t see Sweden as an important player on these issues on human rights. So there will be less focus on this and Sweden contributing to developing the judicial framework around human rights.”
He added: “It’s a fair guess that the negative trend will continue with SD in government, the view from abroad of Sweden will continue to deteriorate, less and less will be seen as a champion of human rights, but as any other country maybe. For some time Sweden has been seen as the exception.”
In an attempt to win back voters, Andersson’s Social Democrats have also moved to the right on crime, immigration and integration, meaning that a win for the left was unlikely to mean a reform of current hardline policies, said Stauffer.
“With a Social Democrats-led government, many of the things we see as problematic are not going to be rolled back. But maybe negative development will not continue in the same way,” he said.
With polls so tight and record early voting expected, the performance of smaller parties could prove critical.
The Liberals, who are tiny but part of the governing coalition and whose leader, Simona Mohamsson, has controversially cosied up to the SD’s leader, Jimmie Åkesson, in recent months, could be crucial for the right’s ability to form a coalition. And, on the left, turnout for the Centre party could also prove significant.
The small leftwing party has made some headway in the polls, which it hopes could be sign of a surge. In Stockholm municipality, in particular, it is gaining ground on the Moderates and hopes to become the second biggest party.
The SD had already won the immigration argument among mainstream Swedish political parties, said Bo Petersson, a political science professor at Malmö University, who argued that the election could become a test of whether the far-right party had any further appeal to Swedish voters. “The mainstream parties have taken the restrictive immigration politics and then there isn’t so much for SD to say ‘we are unique and stand for this’,” he said. “They have been a very clear part of the establishment.”
Fredrik Furtenbach, a senior political correspondent for Sveriges Radio, (Sweden’s public broadcaster, said that if the rightwing parties won, the SD was likely to get several ministerial posts which would be a “big breakthrough for them”.
If the rightwing coalition loses, he expects there to be a post-election debate within the centre-right parties about “whether they allowed the Sweden Democrats to get too close”.
The biggest issues among voters are healthcare, law and order, immigration and Sweden’s economy.
After heated television debates between leaders, the last of which was held on Friday night, election results are expected on Sunday night, but it could take weeks or even months of talks to form a government.
The latest polls show an extremely tight race, with a Dagens Nyheter/Ipsos poll showing on Friday just ۰.۳ percentage points between the left and right blocs, which would leave Andersson’s left-leaning side with ۱۷۵ seats and ۱۷۴ for Kristersson’s right-leaning side.
