Good morning. For almost half a century, British governments have condemned illegal Israeli settlements, acknowledging they represent an obstacle to peace and threaten the prospect of a two-state solution. And yet no government has ever compelled Israel to stop its expansion.
Ed Miliband’s statement in the House of Commons yesterday was an attempt to change that. In a powerful and emotive speech, the foreign secretary recounted childhood memories of picking oranges on his grandmother’s kibbutz, accused Israeli “terrorists” of ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and announced a series of new measures intended to address what he described as a “deeply painful contrast” between rhetoric and reality.
It was the strongest statement on Israel’s actions ever issued by the UK government. But will it make a difference to Palestinians living under the omnipresent threat of violence? Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s chief Middle East correspondent Emma-Graham Harrison and our diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour, drills into the details of Miliband’s announcement and explores that question. That’s after the headlines.
Five big stories
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UK news | Police have been told by the government they expect better intelligence gathering after masked far-right groups took to the streets at the weekend, the Guardian has learned, as the Kent force admitted mishandling warnings of potential trouble.
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UK politics | Andy Burnham should tackle inequality in the UK by introducing a wealth tax, universal free personal social care and bringing gas and electricity networks under public ownership, according to a report from more than a dozen influential thinkers.
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Airline industry | Flight delays and cancellations were expected to continue today at UK airports after another air traffic control failure kept planes grounded for hours, affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers.
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Iran | Iranian forces claimed to have seized an American underwater drone in the strait of Hormuz that the US military said had “malfunctioned” more than a day earlier.
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US news | Donald Trump gave sizeable holiday gifts to four White House aides, according to new financial disclosures released by the administration, including $۴۵,۰۰۰ to executive assistant Natalie Harp.
In depth: Could Miliband’s statement shift what seems politically possible?
The number of settlers in the occupied West Bank (including East Jerusalem) has risen from ۲۷۰,۰۰۰ in ۱۹۹۳ at the time of the Oslo Accords to about ۷۷۰,۰۰۰ today. Settlements are often framed as the project of violent extremists backed by far-right cabinet ministers, but Israel’s annexation enjoys longstanding cross-party support. As Emma Graham-Harrison wrote in January, the idea has “persisted in Israeli political imagination,” and although Israeli politicians have condemned settler violence, roughly half of Israelis think settlements help Israel’s security.
In August, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government opened the tendering process for construction work on the E۱ settlement, a vast project for ۱,۲۰۰ homes that would cut across the heart of the West Bank, dividing it in two and jeopardising the prospect of a two-state solution. Final bids for these contracts close days before the Israeli election next month, and the timing is strategic. “Netanyahu is trying to make E۱ an election issue,” Patrick Wintour tells me.
Miliband’s predecessors Yvette Cooper and David Lammy condemned the plans for E۱, and Cooper backed international sanctions on individual settlers. But neither went as far as Miliband. “He’s a more decisive foreign secretary,” Patrick tells me. “You can’t sporadically say this is an outrage, and then not mention it for two months”.
His stance also reflects Labour’s desire to win back voters on the left. The post-match analysis from Labour’s disastrous May local elections focused on the threat of Reform, but the Greens were a bigger threat to Labour’s vote. Miliband acknowledged yesterday that “Labour has not done enough in the face of what is happening”, and has announced these sanctions just before a pivotal byelection in Holborn and St Pancras, where the leader of the Green party, Zack Polanski, will be contesting Keir Starmer’s former seat.
What has Miliband announced?
It’s worth remembering where we were just two years ago, when Starmer’s government was still resisting calls for a ceasefire in Gaza. Although Starmer became more critical of Netanyahu’s government and ultimately recognised Palestinian statehood, Miliband’s speech marked a significant shift in tone and substance from this equivocating stance. He framed his intervention not as an argument with Israelis, “with whom the UK has unshakeable bonds”, but with the conduct of Israel’s government, its illegal occupation of Palestine, and with “settler terrorists”, while attacking the Boycott, Divest and Sanctions movement that calls to limit all trade with Israel.
The first measure he announced is a widely anticipated ban on the import of goods from illegal settlements. This is important, not least because these settlements violate international law, but the economic impact of the ban will probably be minimal. The settlement economy is relatively small, and its products are already excluded from a ۱۹۹۵ EU free trade deal that reduces the tariffs on Israeli imports to Europe. It’s also kept alive by generous subsidies from the Israeli government. Israeli exporters to Europe regularly hide the origins of produce grow in settlements, something that could be dealt with by the “comprehensive sanctions regime” Miliband is working up with the business secretary.
As significant as the ban itself is the fact France and Canada will join the UK in sanctioning Israeli settlements, a diplomatic coup for Miliband. Far-right ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have come out forcefully against Miliband’s sanctions (on Monday, Ben-Gvir issued a statement in Spanish calling for sanctions on Britain over its “occupation” of the Falkland Islands). Part of the reason is because Israel’s economy is bound far more closely to Europe than to the United States, and they fear a domino effect. “The UK is a permanent member of the security council, and they’re worried that Miliband’s statement could shift the window in terms of what seems politically possible,” says Emma. “Someone else stands up and says it, and suddenly, you aren’t taking an initiative – you’re following another country.”
What will this mean for illegal settlements?
One of its most transformative changes could be Miliband’s pledge to take action against companies and individuals who finance or “facilitate” illegal settlements. Any individual or company that wants to bid for government led construction projects, including new settlement expansion, needs a guarantor to underwrite their new property. Settlement residents also need banking services. Under these changes, banks and other companies that provide services to Israeli settlements will be sanctioned.
“Hypothetically, this could force mainstream financial organisations in Israel to choose between financing settlements, or doing business with the UK,” Emma says.
What has the fallout been?
Israeli ministers have frequently made their intentions in the West Bank clear, but the gap between reality and the reactions of the international community is vast. Miliband’s statement went some way towards closing that. He announced that the British government officially views Israel’s occupation as unlawful (it had previously declared settlements illegal but remained silent on the wider occupation) and that it will refuse all licences for arms that contribute to the occupation. He chose his words carefully, accusing “settler terrorists” of “ethnic cleansing”. As the Israeli human rights lawyer Michael Sfard observed, the recognition of ethnic cleansing triggers legal obligations on the UK to prevent it in the West Bank, potentially dictating “many aspects of British policy towards Israel”.
Israel retaliated by announcing it will be closing the consulate in Jerusalem and banning ۱۱ MPs (on a list topped by Jeremy Corbyn) from entering the country. Meanwhile, the US has threatened “repercussions”. “There is no limit on what Trump could potentially do,” Patrick says. “But it’s worth bearing in mind that he is quite ambivalent about Netanyahu at the moment.” Their relationship has soured over Israel’s refusal to agree to Trump’s peace plan and the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Unquestioning bipartisan support for Israel among US politicians appears to be faltering. Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s former chief of staff who is sounding out a presidential bid, has said he would back sanctions on companies financing illegal settlements. Earlier this week, Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, attacked Miliband for “Jew hate” over the (not yet announced) sanctions plans, but he has also called settler violence an “act of terror”. Miliband’s statement is a powerful recognition of the international law that Israel has relentlessly tried to reject, and comes at a time when itlooks increasingly isolated.
What else we’ve been enjoying
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Tom Wall’s investigation reveals how councils are paying millions to house at-risk children in unsuitable care homes, including hotels, Airbnb properties and, in one case, a tent. It’s a tough read, but I’m grateful that Tom’s kept the spotlight on children, who need us most and who we, as a society, serve least. Libby
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Picture a giant pumpkin, then double its size – Gladys is even bigger. There’s lots of rich detail in today’s pass notes on the ۱۴ft circumference fruit (or is she a vegetable?) Michael
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One of the many delights of writing a newsletter is the chance to draw readers’ attention where it might not ordinarily land. So it is with our sister email Moving the Goalposts, discussing a recent blow-up in South Korean women’s football. Libby
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A new Elon Musk documentary is doing the film festival rounds, and this roundup of its key takeaways has certainly piqued my interest. Michael
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In case you missed it, this Today in Focus episode about Gloria Steinem’s life and legacy is worth a listen for the fabulous archive material and more. Libby
after newsletter promotion
Sport
Football | Two goals in the first ۲۳ minutes secured Real Madrid a ۲-۱ victory against Inter, who had pulled one back through Carlos Augusto, in the Champions League.
Tennis | Frances Tiafoe comes back from two sets down and two points from defeat to beat his fellow American Alex Michelsen in an instant classic over ۴hr ۳۸min at Arthur Ashe Stadium
Cricket | Late-night drinking incidents and a post-Bazball reboot have given England plenty to think about, while Pakistan have their own problems to sort out, as the final Test of the summer starts at Edgbaston on Wednesday.
The front pages
“UK condemns ‘ethnic cleansing by Israeli terrorists’ in West Bank”, is the Guardian’s front page today. The Times leads with “Israel reacts with fury to UK curbs on settlements”, the i Paper also has “Israeli fury after UK accuses settlers of ethnic cleansing” and Metro runs “Backlash as UK accuses Israel”. The Mail says “Miliband accused of putting Jews in UK in danger”, and the Express writes “‘You have put an increased target on us’”.
Elsewhere, the FT splashes “Bailey warns of ‘upside’ inflation risks as debt costs pile pressure on Healey”, the Telegraph writes “Air traffic collapse grounds flights”, and the Sun has “That’s another flyin’ mess”.
The Latest
UK condemns Israeli settlers conducting ethnic cleansing in West Bank
The UK has attacked ‘settler terrorism’ deployed in a campaign of ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, while announcing sweeping sanctions on trade with Israeli settlements in occupied Palestine. Foreign secretary Ed Miliband delivered the strongest condemnation of the actions of the Israeli government ever by a British government, including the disproportionate killings in Gaza of at least ۷۰,۰۰۰ people including ۲۰,۰۰۰ children. Lucy Hough speaks to chief Middle East correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison.
Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Bogotá is not the only city to face the challenges of a rapidly aging population but, with a fertility rate lower than Tokyo, the Colombian capital is taking a creative approach. As multigenerational homes become less common, the mayor opened
“care blocks”, where caregivers can drop off a toddler or an elderly relative for a few hours. Reducing social isolation is key, so the city has started prescribing culture and nature-based activities. Last December, a seniors’ grand ball saw about ۴,۵۰۰ older people dancing to live salsa at the city’s Movistar arena.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
