There isn’t much that we Indians agree on these days. GDP numbers are no exception. Last week, India released glowing GDP numbers for the latest quarter – ۷.۸% growth – higher than the forecast ۷%. It sparked a furore.
Subhash Garg, a former finance secretary under Narendra Modi’s government and now a critic, reframed what Modi called a “herculean feat” as mere smoke and mirrors. According to Garg, the government revised last year’s current-price GDP downwards to inflate this year’s number – he believes the real growth is only ۲.۶%.
The assertion, made on a television channel, immediately went viral. A flurry of op-eds and hot takes have been published since. Supporters of the government, predictably, rejected the claims. Those who have questions agree on a more fundamental problem: a lack of transparency and statistical credibility in India’s economic data. So why is there no consensus?
Over the past decade, critics say, the government has systematically hollowed out the integrity of its own data infrastructure, weaponising economic data for political gain and creating a trust deficit. Methodologies have been changed, crucial surveys have faced long delays and there have been attempts to suppress inconvenient findings.
In November, the International Monetary Fund rated India’s national accounts data a ‘C’ on a four-point scale, the second-lowest grade. In its report, the IMF said some of the methodologies are outdated, including relying on an old base year, unexplained discrepancies between GDP calculated from the production and expenditure side, as well as a lack of seasonal data.
India’s statistical system once commanded respect, and its data on economic and social indicators was considered rigorous. There might have been disagreements on the quality of estimates but their independence was widely accepted. That trust appears to have eroded in recent years.
“There seems to be a systematic effort by the government to hide the truth,” said R Nagaraj, an economist who taught at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, adding that some of the other contested datasets include employment numbers, poverty numbers, health data and consumption data. “Over the last ۱۰ years, the government has changed the methodology for many of these, raising questions. They have apparently also removed critical officials who headed some surveys. All of this adds to the scepticism.”
In one of the most prominent examples, from ۲۰۱۹, a Business Standard journalist revealed that the government had not published an official report showing unemployment at a ۴۵-year high of ۶.۱%. Two expert members of the National Statistical Commission resigned in protest. The government initially denied it, calling it a draft. The figures were only released months later.
Then there is the census, which for the first time since independence, was delayed in ۲۰۲۱. Economists say relying on outdated demographic data means, among other things, inequitable allocation of welfare entitlements. (The first phase of the latest census finally began in April ۲۰۲۶.)
Nagaraj has witnessed some of this first-hand. He served on a subcommittee in ۲۰۱۴ whose report forms a part of the GDP. “The [numbers] we had discussed in the committee and what came out in the final report were different. So, I had to raise a red flag,” he said. The difference was notable: one figure in the published report had been inflated by ۱۰۸%.
But government economists reject the ongoing criticism of the GDP numbers. Shamika Ravi, a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the prime minister, described it as a “noisy and very ill-informed debate” arguing that political leanings, not data, are behind the criticism.
The IMF rating was expected, she said. “The IMF rating of ‘C’ is the same rating that China has for its statistics. Several large developing or just developed economies have data issues.” Revisions to its calculations that the government was accused of having manipulated, she added, were precisely the sorts of changes the IMF had recommended.
The sticking point, as some including India’s former chief statistician Pronab Sen have pointed out, is the trustworthiness of the underlying data used.
Complicating this debate is the reality for many Indians. This year, young people have taken to the streets in frustration. Protests, which first began over leaked examination papers, have crystallised into a broader reckoning over systemic failures in education, jobs and the promise of a better future.
Almost ۴۰% of graduates under ۲۵ are unemployed, a recent report by Azim Premji University concluded. An estimated ۸۷ million (۸.۷ crore) Indians between ۱۵ and ۲۹ are neither working, studying, nor doing skill training, a government thinktank reported last month.
That is why we should care about data quality, economists say. Incorrect data means bad policy. As economist Reetika Khera wrote in her recent book, Freebies or Rights: “Data shines the light to guide policymaking and is important for informed public debates.” As evidence, she points to gaps in basic statistics such as urbanisation and literacy numbers due to the delayed census. The consequences, she argues, are not abstract. Because the government still relies on outdated population numbers to decide who gets food subsidies, she estimates approximately ۱۰۰ million (۱۰ crore) people who should be covered are being deprived.
The controversy is making waves further ashore. In Sri Lanka, where second-quarter GDP figures are expected, the Daily FT newspaper wrote: “One hopes Sri Lankan policymakers and experts are not watching the theatrics in India with watering mouths and dreaming up smart arguments. Spare us such theatre!”
What else we’re reading about
Lollapalooza | British pop star Olivia Dean is to perform in India for the first time in January when she headlines Lollapalooza ۲۰۲۷ in Mumbai. Limp Bizkit is another headline act at the two-day event. Indian artists on the lineup include Ricky Kej (performing with Stewart Copeland) and Aditya Gadhvi.
The price of gold | Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked Indians once again to refrain from buying gold and travelling abroad. He had first made an appeal to self-reliance in May, in part to conserve India’s declining foreign exchange reserves amid a rise in import prices and global energy shocks.
Census ۲۰۲۷ | The new and expanded questionnaire for the ۲۰۲۷ census is raising concerns, reports Scroll’s Anant Gupta. The questionnaire asks respondents for details about their identity documents, as well as their parents’ religion and place of birth. Several of these questions were part of the controversial National Population Register that has remained in abeyance since ۲۰۲۰ and was controversial due to fears that the data might be used to target minorities through a citizenship registry.
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Guest shelf
A recommendation from someone with great taste
Singer Prateek Kuhad (@prateekkuhad), whose latest album, Full Moon Chamber, was released in July, shares an indulgent treat: “I’m a big fan of artisanal Indian chocolate makers. I really like Manam, Carra and Naviluna, and there are many others. Although India has been growing cacao [commercially] since the ۱۹۶۰s, its craft bean-to-bar movement is more recent. Even a plain chocolate bar from one of these makers can be remarkably complex and delicious. More people outside India should know about it and try it.”
Count it
A number worth knowing
۴,۷۵۶,۰۰۰
One-third of the electorate in Delhi, about ۴.۷۶ million voters, have been deleted from the draft voting list as the Election Commission carries out a contentious revision of its rolls across states. So far, about ۱۳۰ million names have been dropped from draft rolls in ۳۰ states and union territories, the Indian Express reported.
Vibe check
Earlier this year, Shakira’s concerts in India was postponed. But Rajasthani folk musicians the Ismail Langa Group (@ismaillanga_official) decided the music had to go on, in their own way. Their mashup of the Colombian star’s Hips Don’t Lie with the traditional folk song called Moruda has got everyone grooving (۴۲m views and counting).
It took two months to pull off, says creative director Jagirdar RV. Most artists in the group, aged between ۲۳ and ۶۰, don’t speak or read English and learned the lyrics by rote. The song choice was simple, he said, because it “has a very nice vibe which matched our vibe”.
It’s been a breakout year for the group, which had a semi-final run on India’s Got Talent and are becoming known for taking folk songs to gen Z audiences on Instagram. They are working on their next English mashup – just not spilling which song, yet.
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