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خواندن: What does the court ruling mean for Marine Le Pen’s presidential chances?
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بجوی > منابع خارجی > What does the court ruling mean for Marine Le Pen’s presidential chances?
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What does the court ruling mean for Marine Le Pen’s presidential chances?

آخرین به روز رسانی: سه‌شنبه 16 تیر 1405 20:21
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What does the court ruling mean for Marine Le Pen’s presidential chances?
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سرفصل های مطالب
  • What did the court decide?
  • What was the case about?
  • What does the appeal court decision mean for Le Pen?
  • What has she decided – and what could it mean for the elections?

Marine Le Pen has said she will be a candidate in France’s presidential race next year, after a court ruling on her appeal against a conviction for embezzlement of public funds allowed her to run.

However, the path ahead is far from straightforward.

Here is a look at the ruling, the case that led up to it, Le Pen’s response – and what might happen next in the race to succeed Emmanuel Macron as French president.


What did the court decide?

The appeal court upheld a lower court’s verdict from March ۲۰۲۵ that found Le Pen guilty of misusing EU funds. However, it reduced the length of both parts of the original sentence – a ban on holding public office and a part-suspended jail term.

The appeal court handed the three-time presidential candidate, who has transformed her far-right National Rally (RN) from an extreme fringe group to the largest single party in the French parliament, a ۴۵-month ban from office, of which ۳۰ months were suspended.

Finding her guilty of misuse of European public funds in her capacity as an MEP and the then president of the RN, it also ruled that Le Pen, ۵۷, must serve a three-year jail term, with two suspended and the third spent under house arrest with an electronic ankle tag.

In March ۲۰۲۵, the lower court had sentenced Le Pen to a five-year ban from holding public office, with immediate effect, and a four-year prison term, with two years suspended – in effect putting her fourth run for France’s presidency on hold until an appeal was heard.


What was the case about?

Along with ۲۳ former MEPs, assistants and accountants, as well as the National Rally as a party, Le Pen was accused of running a system that used money meant for employing European parliamentary assistants to pay staff working for the party in France.

The defendants were suspected of having embezzled €۴.۴m between ۲۰۰۴ and ۲۰۱۶, at first under Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, and, after ۲۰۱۱, under her. A personal secretary and a bodyguard were among employees declared as parliamentary assistants.

“Marine Le Pen asserted herself with authority and determination within the framework established by her father,” the lower court ruled, playing a “central role” in “optimising” a system designed to “save [the party] money thanks to the European parliament”.

Le Pen claimed her party was the victim of a “witch-hunt” and, with ۱۰ others, appealed, denying during her second trial that her party had any kind of system aimed at embezzling EU money, and saying it had acted in “complete good faith”.

Prominent nationalist figures such as Viktor Orbàn in Hungary and Matteo Salvini in Italy denounced the lower court verdict as a “violation of democratic norms”, while Donald Trump called it a “very big deal”, comparing it to his own legal battles in the US.

Supporters of Marine Le Pen protesting after her conviction last year. Photograph: Clement Mahoudeau/AFP/Getty Images

What does the appeal court decision mean for Le Pen?

The appeal court said after its decision that it had aimed to “assess the penalty in light of any infringement of the right to stand for election”, arguing that “voters’ freedom of choice – a prerequisite for the expression of the democratic vote – must be a consideration”.

That is exactly what it did: by in effect reducing her ineligibility for office to ۱۵ months (۴۵ months in total, with ۳۰ months suspended), it ensured she could, in principle, run for the presidency, since the ۱۵ months began with the lower court verdict in March last year.

However, by ordering her to wear an electronic bracelet for a year, it made it very difficult, politically and practically, for her to do so – although the exact terms of house arrest and electronic tagging must be decided by a different judge in the coming weeks.

In principle, an order of “house arrest under electronic monitoring” implies leaving home only during fixed, pre-agreed hours in order to go to fixed, pre-agreed destinations. Occasional exceptions can be requested but are by no means certain to be granted.


What has she decided – and what could it mean for the elections?

Le Pen had repeatedly said she would not run for the presidency if she was obliged to wear an electronic ankle tag, saying it would be impossible to campaign effectively with her movements curtailed.

She had previously also ruled out going to France’s highest court, the court of cassation – which has said that if it was asked to assess the case it would rule before the election – arguing that the uncertainty would jeopardise her party’s chances.

But Le Pen announced on Tuesday evening that she was indeed taking her case to the highest French judicial authority, saying she wanted to “exhaust all the legal avenues available to me in order to defend my innocence in this case” and arguing “the people will decide”.

Taking her case to the highest court meant the appeal court’s order that she wear an electronic ankle tag would not be applied until a final ruling was handed down, she said, adding: “Tonight, I am a candidate in the presidential election.”

The RN had already started preparing for the possibility that her ۳۰-year-old protege, Jordan Bardella, would be its candidate instead. But Le Pen’s decision defers that possibility at least until the court of cassation delivers its verdict.

Polls suggest either RN candidate, Le Pen or Bardella, would comfortably win the first round, due on ۱۸ April. Forecasts for the runoff are divided, with some polls suggesting a centrist candidate, the former prime minister Édouard Philippe, could emerge victorious.

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