Germany is reeling from the biggest far-right victory in a state election since the Nazi period after voters in Saxony-Anhalt in the former communist east gave the anti-immigration, pro-Kremlin Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party a thumping first-place finish of ۴۴%, just short of an absolute majority.
What happened and why is it significant?
For the first time since the second world war, a German state is on the brink of electing a far-right government after a big win in Saxony-Anhalt, described by the news magazine Der Spiegel as a magnitude ۹.۰ “political earthquake”.
Coming in nearly ۲۷ points ahead of the co-ruling Christian Democrats (CDU), the conservative party of the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the AfD pulled off a coup whose aftershocks will ripple across Germany and beyond its borders. The AfD will have broad powers over education, culture and domestic security if it manages to take power in the state. Among other policies, it has promised to start a remigration and deportation offensive, ban rainbow flags in schools, and halt the building of new windfarms. It now has a strong wind at its back for the two state elections yet to come this month.
Its triumph also raised doubts whether the unpopular Merz could hold on in the face of such a clear rejection of his policies and leadership after just ۱۶ months in power. The AfD co-leader Alice Weidel told reporters in Berlin that her party was targeting a ۴۰% result at the next general election, scheduled for ۲۰۲۹. It is currently polling in first place at ۲۸%.
What might happen next?
The AfD’s national leaders and the chief candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, the media-savvy former fragrance salesman Ulrich Siegmund, said the state’s voters had given the party a clear mandate to govern. However, without an absolute majority in the state parliament, the party would need partners or supporters to either join a coalition or “tolerate” a minority government. Siegmund said repeatedly before the vote he would only stand for election as premier with a clear majority. The remaining parties ruled out playing kingmaker to Siegmund by lending formal support. However, the BSW, a small “left-conservative” populist party which narrowly cleared the ۵% hurdle to representation, has hinted at tacit cooperation.
Prior to the election, some Christian Democrats in the state openly questioned the “firewall” policy. Siegmund indicated he would spend the coming days and weeks “with an outstretched hand”, testing the hitherto resolute opposition to helping the AfD into power. If Siegmund fails to build a coalition, he suggested holding a new election, something that would require a two-thirds majority in the state legislature.
What does the result say about the firewall approach?
The stunning outcome in Saxony-Anhalt has underscored doubts about the viability of the policy of mainstream parties to exclude the AfD from power. The only other time the AfD won in a state, in neighbouring Thuringia in ۲۰۲۴, its victory was less decisive, allowing the remaining parties to cobble together an ideologically awkward, cross-spectrum coalition. Given the AfD’s margin of victory in Saxony-Anhalt, it is difficult to imagine how the humiliated CDU could form such a “Frankenstein” alliance of disparate parties this time. The state premier, Sven Schulze, acknowledged the party no longer had a mandate to try.
What does the result mean for the CDU and Friedrich Merz?
Sunday’s election amounted to a stinging rebuke of Merz and his CDU. The stony-faced chancellor admitted he was “deeply shocked” by the result. Exit polls showed voters were furious about his broken promises to revive the economy and shore up fiscal discipline. Energy prices, stoked by inflation and the Iran war, have hit voters hard in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany’s poorest state. Cost of living issues appeared to far outweigh immigration, the AfD’s trademark call to arms, as a mobilising issue. Although support for the AfD has been strongest in the ex-communist east, the party also made strong gains in two elections in western states earlier this year amid fears over deindustrialisation.
The Social Democratic party (SPD), a junior partner in Merz’s alliance, indicated on Monday it would be willing to water down planned changes to Germany’s costly and creaking social welfare system in order to placate disgruntled voters. Merz insisted the measures to shore up the healthcare and pension systems were necessary and vowed to remain and fight for them “in the interest of our children and grandchildren”.
What about the next two state elections?
Voters in the German capital, Berlin, and the Baltic coast state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, two of Germany’s ۱۶ länder, will go to the polls on ۲۰ September. The obvious momentum for the AfD, as well as widespread German dissatisfaction with Merz and his right-left government with the SPD, mean those polls are also fraught with risk for the parties in the federal coalition. The AfD currently has a narrow lead ahead of the co-ruling SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, but for now looks unlikely to win an absolute majority. The situation in Berlin – once divided between east and west – looks muddled, with the CDU, far-left Linke and the AfD all jockeying for first place. Even if the CDU managed to hold on to its lead on election day, it would struggle to form an ideologically coherent coalition, dealing Merz and his party another stinging blow that could further destabilise his government.
